Bizav fleet to grow 33% over ten years
According to Jetcraft’s latest forecast, the worldwide fleet of business aircraft will grow with 33% over the next ten years. It’s the third time the international business aircraft broker issues its annual 10-year business aviation market forecast.
“The global business aviation installed base of just more than 21,000 aircraft will surpass the 28,000 unit mark (net retirements) in 2026, growing 33% during the forecast period,” the forecast reads.
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8,349 units which, based on 2017 pricing, represent a firm $252 billion in revenues, are expected to be delivered by 2026. “North America will again lead the way with 62% (5,176 units) marketshare of unit deliveries, followed by Europe with 17% and Asia with 12% (1,420 units and 1,002 units, respectively),” the report continues.
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“Pinpointing the transition into a new business cycle is challenging,” explains Jetcraft Chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim. “Our forecast indicates we are finally exiting the post-2008 recession period, entering several years of steadier, healthier growth and expanding revenues. This new business cycle should shape our industry for years to come.”
Pre-owned market pace improves
“If market assumptions established over the previous business cycle remain, absorption rates in the pre-owned market will shorten over the forecast period,” the reports further reads. What’s more, according to Jetcraft, absorption rates for pre-owned aircraft should shorten during a period of important new aircraft program releases during the coming years.
Continuing trend in favour of wide-bodies
“Through 2026, our forecast projects significantly more revenue, peaking at $31.4 billion in 2025,” the report goes on. “This trend is despite limited incremental growth from a unit delivery perspective, as demand continues to shift more toward widebody models at the expense of narrowbodies. The Large jet category will constitute 31% (2,589 units) of the total unit delivery forecast, accounting for more than 63% of total revenue.”
“Large aircraft will drive a higher-revenue market in the coming decade,” adds Jetcraft President Chad Anderson. “Jetcraft’s experience reinforces this trend, as we’ve seen more and more customers preferring larger, long-range aircraft to support their needs in today’s global business environment.””
Over the past decade, the average aircraft list price increased by 56%. The forecast sees that number growing by an additional 16% by 2026, as 98% of the forecasted revenues from new programs are for widebody models such as the Cessna Citation Hemisphere, Bombardier Global 7000, and Gulfstream G500 and G600.
Other Key Forecast Findings and Observations Include:
- Bombardier will re-acquire the highest revenue market share over the forecast period, with 29.2%.
- Cessna maintains the top position for unit deliveries, at 27.3%.
- For UHNWIs, wealth creation prospects will continue to grow, especially in Asia, further affecting the business aviation market.
- Transaction bandwidth from public companies should see an uptick when their current focus on share buybacks recedes and they turn their attention to capital expenditures.